BY YIGIT BULUT
RADIKAL- While considering various contingencies for the future of Cyprus, I come up with different conclusions, even while using identical assumptions. Let’s look at the various post-May 1 scenarios:
Main setup: The negotiations on Cyprus end in an agreement, and a united Cyprus joins the European Union on May 1. There’s no problem at this point. Developments until May 1 are assumed to be positive, and there would be no problems during the negotiation process.
Alternate ending 1: It’s assumed that Turkey will be given a date for EU accession talks after Cyprus becomes an EU member, and there is a complete change in Turkey’s constitutional basis. While all these developments continue, the stock market rises 1.7% or even 2%. This rise continues until December, when the expectations become concrete. Turkey enters a new era by getting a date for accession talks. Economic crises are things of the past, and foreign investment floods the Turkish market.
Alternate ending 2: There is a short period of positive expectations. There is a complete change in Turkey’s constitutional basis. The markets also have positive expectations, and the stock exchange rises 1.7%. While it is realized that nothing went as expected, the expectations for December and dynamics that say Cyprus was a loss balance each other out. When the markets grow uneasy yet stay largely positive and calm, it begins to dawn on people that the EU won’t give Turkey a date. Those who were against the Cyprus plan react harshly, and their influence spreads. The government tries to cope with this, but the stock market suddenly falls. Investments also fall and interest rates rise, which leads to a new crisis, one worse then the one in 2001. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) administration becomes known as the ‘government that gave away Cyprus and then fell.’
Which one of these scenarios is most likely? The answer is clear. Fifty-fifity for either. Consequently, as Gunduz Aktan wrote in his column yesterday, every EU country praises Turkey’s EU membership bid, but none of them will give a guarantees. Turkey definitely can’t ‘risk Cyprus’ without a guarantee for the start of accession talks.