BY ERDAL GUVEN
RADIKAL - As conditions right now won't allow us to take hot pursuit into northern Iraq against the terrorist PKK, people are inadvertently thinking about a cross-border operation. Chief of General Staff Gen. Yasar Buyukanit says, `We have no order to do so' and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan says, `It hasn't been demanded,' and they're not talking about hot pursuit. They mean a cross-border operation, which is not a limited raid but a planned one with a large time span and mandate. That's why Buyukanit said Thursday, `Will we enter and fight against PKK, or will we do something about [Iraqi Kurish leader Massoud] Barzani?'
But what are the chances of such an operation succeeding? In a speech back in April, Buyukanit said that an operation would be beneficial. But what exactly did he mean by `beneficial'? What are the risks involved and the price to be paid? We can't have a reasonable discussion and or produce a rational risk analysis without this basic data. Such an analysis is necessary, because Buyukanit isn't talking about a regular practice; he is implying a military operation which would affect the fate of everyone living in that country.
We did so in the past. Of course these Turkish operations were effective to a certain extent, but the leaders of the terrorist PKK weren't taken out of action (excepting two of them), and its structure wasn't destroyed either.
Back then the legal and de facto conditions were suitable. In the 1980s we had bilateral agreements with Iraq. Saddam used to give token objections to Turkey's cross-border operations. Kurdish leaders used to give support to Turkish troops and even guide them sometimes, as it suited them. Back then the US wouldn't object and the European Unioni would criticize in principle, just like the countries of the region.
Now the military and political geography of both Iraq and northern Iraq is completely different. There is a central government in Baghdad whose president and prime minister are Kurdish. Regional Kurdish leaders even say that they will resist a possible intervention by Turkey.
In sum, entering northern Iraq in such a context means mustering up the courage for war. Moreover, it wouldn't be easy to make the world believe that the reason is the PKK. Because they think Turkey's main goal is harming the process it sees as the beginning of independence for northern Iraq.