BY BILAL CETIN
VATAN- Recently, we've heard a lot of scenarios about a possible military operation into northern Iraq. Would it be a limited to airstrikes in the Kandil Mountains, or there be a full-force deployment of troops? Or both? Or will nothing happen until after July's general elections? The answer to the last question is no, because some serious initiatives are already underway. But when will such an operation take place? Of course no one can answer for certain. Ask whoever you want, the answer is nearly always the same: `When the conditions are ripe and the situation necessitates, Turkey will use its right to self-protection in line with international law and carry out a cross-border operation.' Left unclear, however, is, what those conditions are as well as when and how they will ripen. Moreover, how a cross-border military operation will take place and what advantages and disadvantages it would bring about is another sticking point.
Turkey's main policy along these lines is the eradication of the terrorist PKK in northern Iraq, by working in concert with the US and Iraqi governments. Turkey has been working for this for four years, but has yet to get any concrete results. Now, we're back at square one. Last week Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent a very important message to Baghdad via his special envoy, Ambassador Omer Celikkol. Contacts with the US about the issue are being tightened. Turkey has consistently said the following to both the Iraqi and US governments: `The terrorists based in northern Iraq threaten Turkey's domestic security. Every day our citizens die and our soldiers fall. We can't tolerate this any more. The separatist terrorist group is based in northern Iraq, and is protected and supported. It is allowed to infiltrate our territory, and its terrorist acts in our country are overlooked. Stop this! If you say that you can't afford to do so, let's do it together. If you don't do this either, Turkey is determined to single-handedly take effective measures against this terrorist group in line with the UN Charter and internationally binding conventions.' In sum, Turkey gives the message that it will go and strike these terrorists' dens. But this isn't the first time Turkey has given such a message to the US and Iraq..
What will Turkey do now?
It will follow a policy of pressuring the Kurdish government in northern Iraq to abandon the support and freedom it gives and the tolerance it shows the PKK. It will seek the support of the US and the Iraqi central government for this.
Should this policy not yield any concrete results, a military operation seems inevitable. But such an operation isn't very likely, at least before July's general elections.