BY BILAL CETIN
VATAN- The political parties are working frantically. On one hand they are competing to recruit attractive candidates. On the other, they are competing with slogans and promises. Young Party (GP) leader Cem Uzan's promises such as cutting taxes and lowering oil prices have been ridiculed. But today even the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is pledging to cut taxes. They are touting immediate cuts in value-added tax (VAT) rates for some basic foodstuffs and next year for the tourism sector. The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), which is now preparing its economic and social platform, is also planning similar tax cuts and cheaper oil. We will also hear parties' well-intentioned and optimistic promises of how they will fight unemployment and poverty. In sum, all the parties are trying to make their mark with populist promises.
Naturally, all these parties make such promises supposing that they will come to power alone. But will a single party gain power in July's general elections like in fall 2002? When we look at recent polls, the possibility of a single-party government seems low. In line with the present election system, if two parties pass the 10 percent threshold, a powerful single party would come to power. But if three parties cross the threshold, there could be a coalition government, though the chances for a single-party government are still high. If four or more parties get into Parliament, on the other hand, a coalition is unavoidable.
As we don't even know the parties' platforms or candidates, it's too early to make predictions. These two factors will weigh large on voters' decisions. According to the AKP's optimistic projections, three parties - the AKP, CHP and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) - will pass the threshold and the AKP, by winning 38-40% of the vote, will be able to come to power with more than 300 deputies. Will the new Democrat Party (DP), set to take an important step towards unification tomorrow, be able to get across the threshold? According to its members, the DP will do so easily and thus become the largest party on the center right.
It's hard to know what's in store for the DP. If they can't figure out what to do with Mesut Yilmaz, the former leader of the Motherland Party (ANAVATAN), which formed the DP together with the True Path Party (DYP), they may have a tough time in the Black Sea region and Istanbul. If the DP passes the threshold despite all this, formation of a coalition will be unavoidable.