BY TARHAN ERDEM
RADIKAL- We go to the polls in 60 days. The question of how many people will switch their votes is still being mulled. Today, many people who could switch their votes believe that they will determine who will be the next ruling party. I always ask these people this: Will you switch your vote? Most of the time they say no, adding confidently that they won't change their party or vote. They believe that they aren't like other people, that they are superior (!) to them. I don't think that more than 10% of people will switch their votes over the next two months. In addition, these people won't jump ship from one party to another. Some people will leave a party, and others will go to that party. In other words, a party with about 20% support might raise this to 25% or see it fall to 15%. Five percent equals 1.5 million people. It's not easy to attract this many voters from one party to another, because other parties won't just sit there but also try to woo voters from other parties. Will we see projects to make this many people jump parties in the weeks to come? Have we seen similar campaigns before? If we knew who supports what parties now, we could predict how the elections will turn out.
Opinion surveys give such data, but some oppose publishing the result of these polls, arguing that voters are influenced by them. Some also say people often jump ship from small parties to big ones, as if it's a crime for a person to change their vote. There is a law limiting poll publication before elections for just this reason. But this outdated provision does nothing to promote equality and lawfulness. Ask the people who pushed this law or claim that polls influence votes if they have changed their own votes based on polls. They would all answer as one: 'I'm different, but other people are being influenced!' The idea that people are irrational, understand little and are easily swayed exaggerates the impact of campaign rhetoric and banning publishing poll result. If data gauging voters' preferences isn't published and if people known that support for parties won't change by more than 5%, the election atmosphere will tone down and politicians will speak to voters without being upset. However, today, they seek votes by evoking fears and dreams.