We are witnessing some truly historic days regarding the future of Cyprus, Turkey, Greece and the European Union.
The Turkish and Greek delegations are in New York City as these lines are written (evening of Monday, Feb 9), getting ready for their crucial meeting at the Millennium Hotel “to discuss” the Annan Plan. Actually, U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan would rather have them just sign under his plan without changing a single word of it.
The Turkish side includes both the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus delegation (TRNC President Rauf Denktas, Prime Minister Mehmet Ali Talat, Deputy Prime Minister Serdar Denktas, Presidential Undersecretary Ergun Olgun and President Denktas`s constitutional advisor Prof. Mumtaz Soysal) and a top-notch Foreign Ministry team from Republic of Turkey including Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Amb. Ugur Ziyal, Deputy Undersecretary Amb. Baki Ilkin, and Amb. Deniz Bolukbasi.
Calendar ticking away
The next few days are crucial for the following reason:
The Greek Cypriot administration will join the European Union on May 1, 2004 as a full member. If, in addition to the Greeks, the 600,000 Greek Cypriots are not to veto 70 million strong Turkey`s EU aspirations, then the Cyprus issue must be resolved by May 1.
But for that to happen, the Cyprus unification plan must be offered to the referendum of both the Greek- and Turkish-Cypriots by April 21st.
In order for that to happen, both sides must agree on the substance of the Annan Plan by March 31st.
If they depart NYC without shaking hands there probably won`t be any other meetings before May 1. There really is no time left for re-writing anything. At least, that`s how Annan is feeling.
Defining the “blanks”
The Turkish side has arrived in NYC having committed itself to allow Annan to “fill in the blanks” that would be left behind after the settlement talks are over. PM Erdogan`s assertive attitude which captured the momentum for the first time in decades was widely interpreted in the Turkish media as an attempt “to give away the store” in Cyprus in order to clear Turkey`s path to the EU. PM Erdogan of course vehemently denied the allegation in more occasions than one.
Perhaps some critics are missing a rather subtle negotiation strategy developed by the Turkish side.
“If the Greek Cypriot administration in the south accepts the [U.N.] Secretary General to fill in the blanks, then we as a guarantee country, as far as Turkey is concerned, would accept him to do that," Erdogan told the journalists at Davos, Switzerland, on January 24.
That much is true.
But that does not mean that the AKP government will also acquiesce with Annan`s definition of what those “blanks” are.
I believe the Turkish side has arrived in NYC not to "give the store away" at all, but to reduce the gap in the disputed items to such a narrow entity that no matter by whom or how it is filled it would not jeopardize the Turkish interests on the island. That seems to be the plan.
Two strikes against
However, I see two factors working against a satisfactory conclusion of this round of talks:
1) In addition to being as much against the particulars of the Annan Plan as the Turks are, the Greek Cypriots also have no motivation whatsoever to settle anything now. They will become a full member of the EU on May 1 whether they shake hands with the Turks or not. And after May 1, life for TRNC and Turkey will get pretty complicated if there is no unification on the island.
So where is the incentive to negotiate things and make concessions on the part of the Greek Cypriots? The Greek side cannot thank the EU enough for the enviable position they are in today.
2) The Turkish team is made up of some tough and seasoned negotiators indeed.
President Denktas`s resilience and steely adherence to his principles is of course well known.
His long-time adviser Prof. Mumtaz Soysal also needs no introduction. The constitutional scholar who helped draft the TRNC Constitution is usually credited for Denktas`s tough positions in the past.
Amb. Baki Ilkin, an energetic and very experienced diplomat who served as the previous Turkish ambassador to Washington, is also an area expert who has been referred to by some Turkish commentators in the past as a “hawk” when it comes to Cyprus.
Amb. Bolukbasi, the son of late veteran politician and Peoples Party leader Osman Bolukbasi, is quoted in the Turkish press for the very hard bargain he drove last year during the negotiations with his American interlocutors before March 1, 2003 when the Turkish Parliament killed the proposal to allow the U.S. troops cross over to northern Iraq.
The AKP government may well be determined to “stay always one step ahead of the Greek side,” as expressed frequently by PM Erdogan. However the Turkish team in NYC is not made up of inexperienced bureaucrats who would buckle under pressure or jeopardize Turkey`s geostrategic interests in a quid pro quo deal indexed to EU membership.
I do not see how this Turkish delegation, within the few days that are allowed to them, will be able to paper over the jutting sharp edges of the Annan Plan (which I`ve addressed in detail in another turkishpress.com news analysis) and go back home injury-free with a “solution.”
If only Turkey made this move to capture the initiative back in November 2002 when the Annan Plan was first introduced ... perhaps then there might be some time both to define the “blanks” and also to fill them to the satisfaction of both sides. But this shotgun wedding is heading for a divorce even though the guests have just arrived.
A faint hope
Turkey`s only card in this round is to be the last party to leave the table. Let`s hope that that would be taken into account by the powers that be in Brussels if both Turkey`s EU hopes and the rights of the Turkish-Cypriots are to be kept alive.
Such a perception provides the only hope for the faint possibility that Cyprus`s full membership might be postponed to October 2004, creating a temporary breathing room in which the United States can move from her current “friendly persuader” to a “facilitator” or even perhaps a “mediator” position.
However, with the 2004 Presidential elections just over the horizon and Senator John F. Kerry of Massachusetts (a state with a very strong Greek-American constituency) gaining ground against President George W. Bush, I do not see President Bush sticking his neck out for the Turkish Cypriots and risking the unwanted attention of certain ethnic lobbies back at home.