WASHINGTON - In a rare admission of fallibility, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday its closely watched forecasts for economic performance around the world are not always "spot on."
Attacked by some developing countries for its policy strictures, and for failing to anticipate big events like the Asian financial crisis a decade ago, the IMF said its job was to describe the world economy "honestly."
"Like many forecasters, we're clearly very rarely spot on the actual numbers," Tim Callen, head of world economic studies for the IMF, told a news conference.
"Clearly there are times when we are too optimistic about the global economy and times when we are too pessimistic. I think over the last couple of years, we have actually been erring on the side of being too pessimistic," he said.
The IMF conducts reviews every five years by outside experts into the accuracy of the predictions given in its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, the latest issue of which was released Wednesday.
The last review was conducted early last year by Allan Timmermann, an economics professor at the University of California at San Diego.
Timmermann's study suggested that "we were certainly in line with the accuracy in the private (sector) consensus forecasts," Callen said.
In the new WEO, the IMF projected the world economy would expand by 4.9 percent both this year and next, compared to 5.4 percent in 2006. A year ago, the IMF was predicting global 2006 growth of 4.9 percent.
IMF chief economist Simon Johnson said the 185-member organization's forecasts were not the full story, highlighting the detailed analysis it conducts in comprehensive reports like the WEO.
Through the Fund's diverse membership, "we have some unique insights into what's going on around the world in both big economies and small economies," he said.
"Our mandate ... is to tell you honestly what's going on in the global economy. If we do that right, then we're doing our job."
04/11/2007 15:36 GMT