We Should Be Ready For Surprises In The Elections

BY TAHA KIVANC
YENI SAFAK- Should Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan decide to run for president, he will certainly not do that taking into account the public polls; because the parliament not the people will elect the president.

What would you do if you encountered a manager of a company holding public polls? Yes! I certainly did the same and asked about the support for Tayyip Erdodan. Here is the answer: In their past polls held a few months ago they saw a lot of reluctance, however in the last one they saw that the support is rapidly growing.

I met another manager of a public poll company on the same day, believe or not.. The results are the same.The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is the pioneer far and away. The votes of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) are increasing, whereas the support for the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) is falling. The other parties seem far away from winning seats in Parliament. One of the managers said that Cem Uzan's Young Party (GP) is near to %7 whereas the other stated that Democratic Society Party's (DTP) scenario of independent candidates is arousing interest.

In the evening, I saw that the report of the poll carried out by Metropoll firm is on my desk. The first question was `For which party would you vote if an election were held today?' Here are the results: AKP 31.2 %, CHP 12.9 %, MHP 8 %, opposition True Path Party (DYP) 5.4 %, DTP 2.8 %, Motherland Party (ANAVATAN) 2.6 %, GP 2.5 % . the rate of the hesitants and non respondents is 17.4 %.

Looking at the results, I noticed that the hesitants started to make their decision and when we distribute them, we see a three-party parliament, which is composed of AKP, CHP and ANAVATAN.

Metropoll firm also asked questions about the current issues. For instance they asked the people if they remember the March 1 memorandum. 65% replied in the affirmative. This poll also includes important hints. Another question is about the possibility of US's attack to Iran. According to the poll, only 4 % viewed such an attack as accurate. An overwhelming majority of people (92.6 %) thought it would be wrong.

Another interesting question is about DTP. The interviewers asked if the participants knew that DTP would run independent candidates in the elections. 32.8 % said they knew. The following question is "Would you vote for DTP's independent candidates?" Surprise! 7.7 % replied in the affirmative.

Given these results, the elections seem to be contentious and full of surprises.