BY SAMI KOHEN
MILLIYET- After looking at the EU's 50th anniversary ceremonies last weekend and the accompanying Berlin Declaration, we can answer this question in the affirmative.
EU Term President Germany could have invited Turkey as an observer or a guest if it had wanted. The German chancellor, who believes that Turkey can't get into the EU even 50 years from now, saw no reason to make such a gesture. We're sure that if Britain, Spain, or Italy had been at the EU helm, Turkey wouldn't have been excluded from these ceremonies.
When we look at the Berlin Declaration, there's nothing to encourage Turkey. The declaration doesn't even talk about expansion, it only vaguely talks about `being open to other countries'...
All this could be interpreted as showing that on its 50th anniversary the EU doesn't want to give a positive message to Turkey. In fact, the EU's priority isn't Turkey now. It has problems with its own structure and functions. EU leaders want to postpone expansion of the Union.
The ceremony and the declaration showed the EU's hesitation. The joyful ceremonies and their PR angle were stressed. Other pressing issues were diplomatically brushed aside.
What we can conclude from Berlin is this: The members don't have a common view or strategy about what kind of EU they want. There are various choices: Should the EU have a federal structure, or remain a union of nations? ... Should it grow horizontally or vertically? In other words, should it expand or deepen? Should it continue to be an economic-dominated community, or try to be a strategic and political power and undertake a global role? ...
All this will be discussed in the EU in the coming days. The declaration says work on the Union's basic structure will be completed by 2009. Let's see that if the members reach an agreement or not.
As I wrote last week, Turkey's EU chances are dependent on the EU's role and function emerging from these debates.
One possibility is that the EU will choose to strengthen its integration and freeze expansion for a while. This could further weaken Turkey's EU membership bid, or even kill it.
Another possibility is that EU could want to continue its expansion while working on its political structure. New cyclical factors could play a role in this. For example, the EU could feel the necessity to expand cooperation concerning issues such as terror, security, energy, migration, and global warming. The need for Turkey along these lines would make the EU look on it more favorably.
But right now we still face the decision made in Brussels last December. The Berlin Declaration didn't add to or change it. The celebrations in Brussels just calmed the weather a bit.