WASHINGTON - Four years after US President George W. Bush ordered the Iraq invasion, the unpopular war dominates the US political scene and poses a headache for the 2008 White House contenders, experts say.
"You've got to have a position on what may indeed be an insoluble problem. You've got to say something about Iraq," said Stephen Hess, a presidential politics specialist at George Washington University.
The conflict is "the number one issue" on voters' minds ahead of the 2008 presidential election, muting ongoing national debates on immigration or energy policy, according to Eric Davis, a political science professor at Middlebury College in Vermont.
It's not just the drumbeat of US deaths, or the billions of dollars being spent: Iraq is central to controversies like the poor health care for wounded veterans and the conviction of a former senior Bush aide in a CIA leak case.
And Iraq shows no signs of going away, with Bush saying the final withdrawal of US troops from the war-wracked country will be something for future US presidents and future governments in Baghdad to decide.
"There are a lot of domestic issues that the American people are concerned about, the economy, immigration, gas prices, health care. Those issues are going to emerge to some extent," said former White House spokesman Scott McClellan.
"But a year from now, if things haven't improved in Iraq, then it (the war) will continue to dominate the debate in the Democratic primary, and to a lesser extent among Republicans," McClellan told AFP.
The parties face tension between their activist base supporters, who will decide the eventual presidential nomination over the next year and a half, and the general public that will cast ballots for president in November 2008.
Bush's Democratic foes hope to use deep anger over the war to capture the White House, the way they took control of the US Congress in November elections in which the conflict was by far the number one issue on voters' minds.
The party's base fiercely opposes the war, with many calling for cutting war funding to force a troop withdrawal -- something opposed by the party's moderates in Congress and by most of the US public.
"The Democrats obviously want as many troops out of Iraq as possible as soon as possible," but lack the two-thirds congressional majority to override Bush's veto, leaving a stalemate, said Davis.
Bush's Republican base supports the war more than the US public at large does, which means "there is only so far that they (presidential hopefuls) can run away from the president," said Hess.
That means the nominee "might not be able to lead the Republicans to a 'win' in the general election," said Davis, noting that national opinion polls show deep opposition to the war, including Bush's new effort to pacify Baghdad.
Despite the Iraq debate, there are signs that the White House and leading Democrats in Congress could work together on an immigration overhaul, and many US states tired of what they see as the lack of leadership from Washington on health care are taking matters into their own hands, said Davis.
But those issues are unlikely to top voter concerns heading into an election that is still about 20 months away.
"The only thing that could push it (Iraq) off is if the economy really goes into the tank, if (former Federal Reserve chairman) Alan Greenspan is right that we're heading into a recession," said Davis. "That could possibly bump Iraq."
03/16/2007 02:06 GMT