A February 2007 report from Merrill Lynch concluded that Türkiye's upcoming presidential election was unlikely to trigger a political crisis, with the firm's Istanbul-based chief economist Mehmet Simsek expressing confidence in a stable outcome.
Simsek estimated a 65 percent probability that the Justice and Development Party (AKP) would win a second consecutive term in general elections, and placed the party's overall chances of holding power, whether alone or with a junior coalition partner, at roughly 90 percent. He added that AKP's vote share was not expected to depend on whether Recep Tayyip Erdogan became president, noting that a transition of the prime ministership to Abdullah Gul would not cost the party support.
On the economy, Simsek forecast that Türkiye would miss its inflation target, projecting a rate of 7.2 percent for 2007. He cited a high current account deficit as a source of uncertainty for inflation expectations, while noting that budget performance was strong and that stocks and bonds remained undervalued.
Simsek projected the current account deficit would narrow to 6.5 percent, with growth slowing, tourism revenues rising 10 percent, privatization accelerating, and foreign investment increasing, particularly in real estate. "If a reformist and strong country emerges after the elections, Türkiye's future is quite bright," he said.
Historical summary. TurkishPress restated this wire report, first published in February 2007, in its own words.