Chess In Cyprus – Very Few Moves And Pieces Left

by Ugur Akinci, Ph.D.
http://tork.blogspot.com

Turkish Government has paid Greek-Cypriot plaintiff Ms. Titiana Loizidou 1,120,000 Euros in compensation for her property currently inside the borders of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
Hürriyet`s Cüneyt Ulsever put it very succinctly: “By accepting the verdict Turkey has also accepted the reasoning behind the verdict. The reasoning behind the verdict completely denies the Turkish perspective on Cyprus. I wonder how Turkish hawks will deal with the new contradictory position they have adopted with the Loizidou case.”
The original 1998 compensation awarded by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) was 650,000 Euros. Turkey ended up paying an interest on the original amount as an additional penalty, almost adding insult to injury.
The ECHR verdict was resisted by Ankara for years and the issue has been dragged out in a series of legal maneuvers. Now it`s over. With that check, Ankara officially admitted that Greek-Cypriots like Ms. Loizidou do have a right to compensation for their properties left in the North and for being prevented from visiting their property.
No doubt, the Turkish-Cypriots also do have similar properties left in the South and they could also file compensation suits in the future. But given the current international environment favoring the Greek-Cypriots and that nobody except Turkey recognizes TRNC as a legitimate political entity, I`m not certain if the Turkish-Cypriots would have a fair hearing at ECHR.
But one thing is for sure -- if the status quo continues over the next year, there will be hundreds of similar Greek-Cypriot cases taken to ECHR in 2005. Even though ECHR supposedly agreed that the Loizidou case will not be treated as a precedent, I have a feeling that Turkey might again be forced to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in additional compensation. Each payment will erode Turkey`s already eroded political position even more.
The alternative, refusing to comply with ECHR verdicts altogether, would mean shutting the EU door close with a loud bang. That`s not a solution either.
I remember the day about 4 or 5 years ago when I`ve personally heard a member of the Ecevit coalition government confidently and categorically stating at a Washington D.C. meeting that the “Cyprus issue is already solved” and that if the Greek-Cypriots pushed it, Turkey could “integrate” the Northern Cyprus as a last resort.
What is this well-educated social-democrat gentleman thinking these days, I wonder? Does he still think that the Cyprus issue is “solved already”? Well, perhaps it indeed is “solved already” but certainly not in the way he expected. It`s sad.
In May 2004, Greek-Cyprus will join the European Union as the Government of Cyprus, representing the whole island. And due to their new status as a sovereign EU country, they will gain the right to open an embassy in Ankara.
But Ankara does not recognize the Greek-Cyprus government. So what will happen then? Will Turkey create a diplomatic scandal of international proportions by denying representation to an EU country in Ankara while she herself is trying to be represented in Brussels? I can almost see the headlines on CNN.
Or will Ankara allow the Government of Cyprus open an Embassy while pretending it`s not even there? How will the Cypriot Ambassador visit the Turkish President to present his or her credentials? What a mess...
And after May 2004, what will happen to the status of the Turkish Defense Forces in the Northern part of the island? The slightest suggestion from Brussels that the majority of the Turkish troops might be forced to withdraw from the island has already whipped up a storm of indignation in the Turkish press.
If TRNC President Denktas` party wins the Turkish-Cypriot elections on December 14, then the chances are he will continue defending the “status quo” because the Greek-Cypriots right now have almost no reason whatsoever to compromise on anything. They seem to be holding all the pawns-promoted-to-queens in the Cyprus Chess.
How will the AKP government continue walking on the road that supposedly leads to Turkey`s EU full-membership if the status quo is preserved? How will AKP prevail in its mission without recognizing the Greek-Cypriot government as a new EU member? Will the Erdogan government be able to stay in power for too long if Turkey`s EU application process is ditched for good due to blowing a couple of tires while trying to negotiate around Cyprus?
I understand this decision is celebrated by some in Ankara as a “victory for Turkey and the Turkish Foreign Ministry” because supposedly the case will not set a precedent for future lawsuits. Perhaps that is the case. I am not a diplomat or a lawyer with expertise in international law to fully appraise the technical merits of the development. But, I know how over the past decades Turkish positions slipped and slided in unexpected directions even on surfaces that was certified to be 100% safe. Things change every day. So if I were Ankara I wouldn`t put all my eggs in ECHR`s promise basket, yet.
After Loizidou, I cannot see how Turkey will be able to join the EU without at least agreeing to talk and negotiate over the Annan Plan for Cyprus.
There are very few pieces and moves left in this chess game.