The European Commission's autumn 2006 economic forecast concluded that global financial market turbulence posed little threat to Türkiye's growth outlook. Output expanded by 7 percent in the first half of 2006, driven by robust domestic demand, and the Commission projected full-year GDP growth of around 6 percent.
The current account deficit widened from 6.7 percent of GDP in 2005 to roughly 7 percent in the first half of 2006. The Commission expected it to ease to about 6.5 percent by year-end before settling near 7.2 percent over the following two years.
On employment, the report projected job growth of approximately 2 percent annually, gradually pulling the unemployment rate down from 10 percent in 2005 to 9 percent by 2008. Labor force participation stood at 47 percent.
Looking ahead, the Commission anticipated that private investment and export growth would increasingly drive output, aided by a weaker lira and earlier capital investments. The general government deficit was forecast to rise from 1.2 percent of GDP in 2005 to 4 percent in 2007, partly due to election-year spending, before public debt declined to around 63 percent of GDP by end-2008.
The report acknowledged that parliamentary and presidential elections were scheduled for 2007 but noted that potential policy shifts tied to those elections were not factored into its projections.
Historical summary. TurkishPress restated this wire report, first published in November 2006, in its own words.