BY SELCUK GULTASLI
ZAMAN- Columnist Selcuk Gultasli writes on Turkey’s European Union membership bid. A summary of his column is as follows:
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote that next year the EU is very likely to present three options to Ankara, which can be summed up as follows: First, Turkey might begin its membership negotiations, for the sake of which our government has recently approved a considerable number of reform packages. Second, the EU might instead highlight the deficiencies and discrepancies in our implementation of these reforms, and so put off the beginning of our membership talks for another year. Finally, the EU might propose a ‘special partnership’ with our country, which is the formula called for by the European Parliament’s Christian Democratic deputies.
EU watchers believe that the third option is no longer possible since our government has successfully approved significant reform packages on its path towards full membership. As often noted by EU Commissioner for Enlargement Guenter Verheugen, the current government has been very successful in its efforts towards improving Turkish democracy, which is why next year it would be more difficult for the EU to fault our country for failing to take effective measures. Therefore, a fourth option comes to mind:
Under this scenario, if Brussels says ‘no’ to Ankara despite our government’s valiant efforts, it will have to pay a heavy political price, one which will strike a huge blow on Turkish-EU relations due to a resulting crisis of confidence. If refused by Brussels, Ankara might even take advantage of the situation as a clear victim of blatant injustice. Therefore, Brussels would do better to set the beginning date for Turkey’s membership talks next year.
After receiving its date, Ankara will probably carry through the simple regulations of the EU acquis communitaire post haste. I don’t think Ankara is going to encounter serious problems with economic legislation or the Customs Union. The EU acquis communitaire has 31 comprehensive sections covering important issues from internal affairs to fisheries. Under the fourth scenario, in the future the EU and Turkey would be the actors in a never-ending melodrama featuring heated discussions of critical issues like national security, justice, foreign affairs, etc. The authors of this scenario believe that Turkey is unlikely to fulfill certain EU criteria touching upon sensitive issues, which is why Ankara itself is expected to propose a special partnership with the Union. Consequently, the EU will seem to pursue a fair Turkey policy and will also have the opportunity to approve the memberships of Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina, both of which have large Muslim populations. This move would silence critics of the EU’s exclusionary policies.
However, there are also certain circles which refuse to take this scenario seriously, since in all the EU’s history every country which fulfilled the necessary criteria so far has managed to join its ranks. But, let’s not forget that the EU has a staff highly skilled at developing interesting formulas for Turkey. Therefore, we’ll have to wait to see the true answers to our questions.