BY ISMET BERKAN

RADIKAL- Columnist Ismet Berkan predicts a surprise initiative by Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) President Rauf Denktas. A summary of his column is as follows:

As we all know, TRNC President Rauf Denktas has repeatedly stated that the Cyprus plan prepared by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan is no longer on the negotiating table. He has refused to discuss the issue with the Greek Cypriots. However, in the runup to December’s TRNC parliamentary elections, its opposition parties have pledged to resume negotiations with the Greek Cypriots in line with the Annan plan in order to reach a permanent settlement as soon as possible. Recently, the political pressure on Denktas intensified. Both our Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul often highlight the need to seek solutions for the island’s problems in accordance with the Annan plan. Also, in a recent statement to the Greek press, Chief of General Staff Gen. Hilmi Ozkok made remarks on the Cyprus issue, and he didn’t write off the Annan plan.

At this point, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Denktas called on the Greek Cypriot side to resume the peace talks. I expect him to launch a fresh initiative to save his skin in the upcoming elections. As far as I know him, Denktas will probably bid to buy time instead of genuinely trying to move the negotiations forward. Even if the elections shift the parliamentary balance against him, replacing Denktas with someone else won’t be easy since he could actually still be sitting at the negotiating table. However, if Denktas fails to restart the talks, replacing him will be much easier, which is why I believe that he might spring such an initiative before the elections.

In my opinion, the Greek side also prefers Denktas to be the negotiator, rather than some opposition figure, willing to discuss reasonable proposals with them in the interests of a speedy agreement. However, the Greek Cypriots want to gain time until next May when they are due to join the EU ranks. Therefore, they prefer Denktas to anybody else, as he will probably put forward unacceptable proposals during the talks. As a matter of fact, Greek Cyprus doesn’t really care about a settlement. If the Greek Cypriots join the EU without the TRNC, this will hand them unlimited opportunities to put pressure on Turkey.

Now I’m waiting for Denktas’s sudden initiative. When will he make his move? Maybe tomorrow, or maybe even sooner...