Thailand's military seizure of power in September 2006 prompted security analysts to assess where similar events might follow. Pakistan drew the sharpest concern among Asian nations: Christian LeMiere of Jane's Country Risks cited Islamist currents within the officer corps, unrest in Baluchistan, and India-Kashmir friction as destabilizing forces. He warned that a coup or military mutiny could occur before or after Pakistan's 2007 elections, even as senior commanders remained aligned with President Pervez Musharraf.
Nepal, Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Fiji were also flagged as vulnerable in Asia. Fiji had carried poor civil-military relations since a coup in 2000, while the Philippines faced persistent coup rumors despite President Gloria Arroyo retaining the loyalty of senior officers.
In Africa, analysts at Chatham House and Control Risks identified the Central African Republic, Chad, Ivory Coast, Equatorial Guinea, and Zimbabwe as fragile. Victor Bulmer-Thomas of Chatham House pointed to weak democratic traditions, winner-take-all politics, and the temptation of controlling natural resources as factors that made military action attractive to potential coup-makers.
Türkiye and Egypt were grouped separately, as countries where armed forces might intervene if Islamist political influence grew too strong, with Western governments seen as likely to offer quiet support. South America, meanwhile, was considered increasingly stable as democratic norms consolidated.
Historical summary. TurkishPress restated this wire report, first published in September 2006, in its own words.