BY MURAT YETKIN
RADIKAL- Columnist Murat Yetkin comments on Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s stance on possible Turkish troop deployments in Iraq. A summary of his column is as follows:
Three analysts from the Eurasian Strategic Research Center (ASAM) have put together the results of a study on postwar Iraq in a report slated to be published soon in ASAM’s journal Strategic Analysis. After laying out in detail information on the Iraqi tribes and sects dead set against US intervention in their country, the country’s authors have this to say:
`Although Iraq’s military power does not seem capable of defeating US forces, attacks against US soldiers are very likely to bring about significant consequences in terms of the country’s reconstruction. This conflict might increase the number of people in the Middle East holding anti-US views. However, this scenario is not a foregone conclusion. The US still has the opportunity and capability to halt, reduce or cushion the blow of these attacks.’
These views are of great importance for Ankara, which is currently hesitating over deploying its troops there. As a matter of fact, it’s not so much Ankara which is reluctant about such deployment but more specifically the government. Because in saying ‘Ankara’ we’re usually referring not only to the government but also to the president, Office of the General Staff and the Parliament. Despite his disapproval of the Iraq war due to the lack of international legitimacy, President Ahmet Necdet Sezer has finally adopted a more flexible stance, as he does not want to cause another disappointment with Washington. Even Parliament Speaker Bulent Arinc, who is well known for his harsh antiwar statements, has stated that he would take a stance in line with the government’s. Former Deputy Chief of General Staff Gen. Yasar Buyukanit has also stated that Turkey cannot remain indifferent to war in a neighboring country.
Therefore, the decision whether or not to send troops to Iraq is in the hands of the government, that is to say, Prime Minister Erdogan. Here is Erdogan’s dilemma: If Turkey deploys its troops there, bilateral relations with the US would be mended but our soldiers are very likely to be seen as ‘collaborators with the foreign invaders.’ But if the troops don’t go, Turkish-US relations would worsen.
Here is an important question that our government should ask to itself: ‘If the US fails in Iraq, what would Turkey do? Would the situation under such circumstances be in our favor?’
Erdogan is scheduled to meet with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder next Tuesday in Berlin, which has already stated that it would not deploy troops in Iraq. Erdogan is then to attend the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy, side-by-side with a number of prominent European Union leaders. He will thus have the opportunity to learn more about the EU countries’ stances on the matter. After his contacts in Europe, he is expected to speed up Ankara’s decision-making process on the Iraq issue. It is of course necessary to take careful steps on such a sensitive issue. However, the quicker Erdogan acts, the sooner our country can change the mistaken impression in the world’s eyes that it suffers from a serious leadership crisis.’