A London-based research group, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), predicted Thursday that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season would produce 14 tropical storms, eight of which would become hurricanes and three of which would reach intense hurricane status. The forecast was the second such warning in roughly a week.
TSR, which links scientists from University College London's Benfield Hazard Research Centre with backing from the reinsurance industry, based its outlook on Caribbean sea surface temperatures and trade wind speeds. The group projected that four storms would strike the US coast, including two hurricanes.
On 1 June, University of Colorado researchers Philip Klotzbach and William Gray had forecast 17 Atlantic tropical storms, with nine becoming hurricanes and five reaching Category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Category 3 storms carry sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour.
TSR lead scientist Mark Saunders noted a 74 percent probability that 2006 would rank in the top third of years for storm activity, yet said the chance of matching 2005 levels remains low.
The 2005 season set records with 28 named storms and 15 hurricanes, including Hurricane Katrina, which killed around 1,300 people and displaced roughly 100,000 others. Total damage that year exceeded 100 billion dollars.
Historical summary. TurkishPress restated this wire report, first published in June 2006, in its own words.