University of Colorado climatologists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray forecast an active 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, five of which are expected to reach Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Category 3 storms carry sustained winds of at least 111 miles (178 kilometers) per hour.
The researchers said the probability of a major hurricane hitting the US East Coast, including Florida, stands at 69 percent, more than twice the historical norm of 31 percent. Gulf Coast landfall risk was put at 38 percent, only marginally above its 30 percent historical average.
Warming ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic since early April and weakening trade winds are fueling the elevated outlook, the scientists said. Their projection is broadly consistent with a separate National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimate of four to six major hurricanes.
The forecast would still mark a significant drop from the record 2005 season, which produced 28 storms and 15 hurricanes, among them the destructive storms Katrina and Rita. Klotzbach and Gray notably underestimated that season, having predicted only 11 tropical storms and six hurricanes.
Historical summary. TurkishPress restated this wire report, first published in May 2006, in its own words.