The European Commission's spring 2006-2007 economic forecast offered an upbeat assessment of Türkiye's near-term prospects, predicting GDP growth of roughly 5.5 to 6 percent annually and projecting that the country would sustain robust export gains, especially in tourism.
The report credited a strong Turkish lira and tight fiscal policy with pushing consumer price inflation below the 8 percent year-end target in December 2005, continuing a multi-year disinflation trend. The Commission expected that trend to persist, though elevated oil prices and sticky services costs could slow further progress.
Private investment was forecast to outpace overall economic expansion, while private consumption was projected to grow around 5 percent in both 2006 and 2007. Import growth was also expected to remain high, driven by strong domestic demand and the capital-goods needs of export industries.
On employment, the Commission forecast job growth of about 2 percent per year, roughly matching labor-force expansion and keeping unemployment near 10 percent. The general government budget deficit was projected to drop below 1 percent of GDP by 2007, aided by falling interest rates and ongoing public finance reforms.
The Commission flagged parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for 2007 as a potential risk to public spending discipline.
Historical summary. TurkishPress restated this wire report, first published in May 2006, in its own words.