ROME - Italy's general election may be so close that it could result in the nightmare scenario of a split parliament, with the Chamber of Deputies going to one coalition and the Senate to its rival.
That's the fear of several party leaders and political analysts as the election headed into its second day Monday.
Experts say changes to Italy's electoral law last December, when Italy reverted to a system of full proportional representation instead of the previous system, where most seats were allocated on the first-past-the-post system.
"These new rules have encouraged the main parties on both fronts to seek alliances with a large number of minuscule formations, thus exacerbating the risk of political fragmentation within each of the two coalitions and possibly diluting the content of the two platforms," said Vincenzo Guzzo, an economist with Morgan Stanley investment bank.
"Second and foremost, because of the different rules affecting elections for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate and the tight margin in the race, we should not underestimate the chances of a split parliament that would ultimately result in political paralysis."
Experts say the split could result in several possibilities, including a German-style "grand coalition," a technocrat government, or even fresh elections.
Party leaders said during the campaign they would prefer fresh elections in the event of the legislative paralysis that would result if the upper and lower houses of parliament were divided.
"It would be a disaster," warned Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi ahead of the polls.
The coalition that wins the most votes, even by a small margin, will automatically be awarded 340 seats in the 630-seat Chamber of Deputies.
A result of more than 55 percent -- considered unlikely -- would entitle the coalition to further seats.
In the 315-seat Senate, however, the seats are determined region by region. The winning coalition in each region will be awarded at least 55 percent of that region's seats in the chamber.
According to Deputy Prime Minister Gianfranco Fini, some regions are a foregone conclusion because of traditional right or left support, "but the vote in three regions, Lazio (which includes Rome) Piedmont and Puglia, will be decisive."
"Piedmont could prove decisive for Berlusconi in the way Ohio was for Bush in the United States," said political analyst Roberto d'Altimonte.
"If Berlusconi doesn't take Piedmont, he loses the Senate," he said.
04/10/2006 02:11 GMT