BY SEMIH IDIZ
AKSAM- Columnist Semih Idiz comments on the need for Ankara to establish a ‘modus vivendi’ with Iraq’s Kurds. A summary of his column is as follows:
It’s been written too often recently that the US has become ‘Turkey’s neighbor’ and that this is no positive development. Actually, the usefulness for Turkey of the US intervention in Iraq was clear from the very beginning. Now I’m not only writing about developments on the ‘Kurdish issue,’ because the dynamics set on motion by the Iraq war aren’t limited to this. For instance, the dangers of a fundamentalist regime being established in Iraq are very clear. In addition, Turkey’s northern Iraq problem must be solved. If Ankara can cooperate with the northern Iraqi Kurds based on realistic assumptions, a ‘modus vivendi’ can be found for both sides. Contrary to the Arab thesis, Kurds constituting a society open to development according to the Western model should be considered a development in Turkey’s benefit.
Political developments in Washington on Iraq will probably make such a ‘modus vivendi’ a must. Everything depends on the US establishing stability in Iraq. If the US can succeed at this, US President George W. Bush will face fewer problems. This will also erase the perception that ‘Bush lied to the US people.’ However, Bush’s odds of success at this are gradually falling. Additionally, even Gen. Tommy Franks, until recently the commander of allied forces in Iraq, told the US Congress last week that US forces might stay in this country for years, which certainly shows the seriousness of the situation. But it’s not known if the US public will support such an extended engagement. With the recent military losses, the US public is losing patience and the possibility of a new ‘Vietnam syndrome’ grows every day. The calls for withdraw from Iraq which will surely come will also completely change the equation.
The real problem for Turkey will begin with the US’ withdrawal from the region. On that day, Washington will leave a power vacuum behind, thus worsening Ankara’s headache because then Iraq will fall into internal disputes and conflict between its Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds. In this case, Turkey, looking for stability at its border, will find only the Kurds being cooperative. Of course Iraq’s ethnic Turkmen will also be involved in this. However, as they are in the majority, the Kurds will continue to be the dominant players. Ankara should make its plans with this in mind. Unless a ‘modus vivendi’ with the Kurds is part of these plans, Turkey falling into the ‘swamp of Iraq’ will be all but inevitable.
In sum, we cannot say that the US is really our neighbor. However, clearly we are living side-by-side with a potential instability which will bring serious problems. Thus, Turkey should take care to act reasonably so as to avoid falling into the same traps that have caught the US.
SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION